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Inflation in China: An old worry nags again

Inflation in China

An old worry nags again

Sep 13th 2007 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

Rising prices alarm the Communist Party ahead of its five-yearly congress

CONSUMERS in China’s cities have had it good for an unusually long time. During most of the past few years of double-digit economic growth, inflation—at least according to official figures—has been barely detectable. But data published this week show the biggest monthly rise in consumer prices for over ten years. Government officials are getting worried that China’s happy spenders will turn angry.

过去很长一段时间，尽管中国经济增长速度达到两位数，但国家基本没有出现明显的通货膨胀。然而本周发布的数据显示，中国当月的消费价格增长，创造了十年来的最高记录。

The latest figures were higher than many had expected. The National Bureau of Statistics said that consumer prices rose 6.5% in August compared with a year earlier, up from 5.6% in July. Officials still insist that the recent price increases are not a sign of widespread inflation. So far, they say, the index is being driven up by food prices, particularly pork. If food is excluded the index rose by a mere 0.9% in August. But nerves are fraying. Inflation always scares the Communist Party. Hyperinflation helped its own rise to power in the 1940s; price increases fuelled the pro-democracy unrest of 1989.

本期消费价格上涨之高，出乎很多人的意料。国家统计局公布，八月份消费价格同比上涨6.5%。政府官员则表示，中国并未面临全面通货膨胀的危险，这一数字偏高，主要是由于食品价格上涨的驱动（尤其是猪肉）。如果去掉食品价格影响的话，本期消费价格上涨仅为0.9%。上世纪40年代GCD取得全国政权，以及89年的风波，皆与物价飞涨有关。

The timing of this price surge is unfortunate for President Hu Jintao. Since becoming party chief in 2002 and president in 2003, he has presented himself as a champion of the poor. The urban middle-class may shrug off rising food prices, but the poor are being hit harder. From October 15th Mr Hu will preside over his first party congress since assuming the leadership. He does not want it marred by public grumbling, let alone protests. In the build-up to the congress, local officials, citing the need for “stability”, have been issuing flurries of directives calling for measures to tame prices.

胡主席上任以来，一直以代表穷人利益的形象出现。物价的上涨，对于城市的中产阶级并不会产生多大影响，但对穷人来说压力就很大了。10月15日即将召开党的十七大，届时社会的稳定将显得尤为重要。

Pork is the focus. At the end of August it was 70.3% more expensive than it was a year earlier in 36 large cities surveyed by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the economic-planning ministry. Officials blame rising animal-feed prices and the death or culling of millions of pigs after an outbreak of disease. Officials say pork prices have stabilised since the middle of August. But demand will surge during festivals in the coming weeks. Pork is a staple food for most Chinese.

猪肉价格是焦点问题。根据国家发改委公布的调查数据，八月末猪肉价格同比增长了70.3%。官员称，这主要是受饲料价格的上涨和疫情爆发的影响，猪肉价格已经趋于稳定。但十一假期即将来临，接下来几周对猪肉的需求将大幅增长：猪肉是中国人饭桌上必不可少的食品。

Other food is becoming dearer too. The prices of eggs, poultry and edible oil rose some 20% or 30% in big cities in August compared with a year earlier. Overall the food-price index rose by 18.2% that month. Central and local governments have responded with new subsidies to encourage peasants to raise more pigs and cushion vulnerable groups from price rises. Among those receiving handouts are those on poverty-relief schemes, army units and poor students. In Beijing this week officials banned price increases in university canteens. A state-owned newspaper reported complaints by students in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong, that canteens have been cutting portions to save money.

其他食品的价格也在上涨，包括鸡蛋、家禽和食用油的价格都上涨了20%-30%。作为应对措施，国家已出台提价政策，鼓励农民扩大生猪和蔬菜的生产。本周，有关部门发布政令，禁止大学食堂涨价。有报道称，深圳某大学食堂为了降低成本，减少了单份饭菜的供应量。

The NDRC has promised not to intervene directly in setting prices. But it has ordered a crackdown on merchants or producers who are “fixing prices”. Price-rigging is probably often more imagined than real. Local governments can gain popularity by using anti-cartel regulations to bully sellers into keeping prices down. But free-market instincts still run deep. Many newspapers heaped scorn on the city of Lanzhou after it ordered a cap on the price of beef noodles in June.

国家发改委表示，政府不会直接干预商品的定价，但同时也发布了法令，要求打击“操纵物价”的商人。地方政府打击卡特尔，评议物价的行为，会得到百姓的拥护。但自由市场的理念仍深入人心。对于六月份兰州对牛肉拉面的限价令，许多报纸表示不以为然。        （cartel 卡特尔：由一系列生产类似产品的独立企业所构成的组织，目的是提高该类产品价格和控制其产量。根据美国反托拉斯法，卡特尔属于非法——编者注）

Local governments have reason to fret. Even before food-price inflation became apparent early this year there had been reports of price-related unrest. In March riots erupted in Zhushan village in Hunan after a bus fare was increased from seven yuan (about 90 American cents) to nine. Riot police armed with batons clashed with thousands of farmers, leaving one person dead. In October 2006 hundreds of people rampaged through a hospital in Sichuan and fought with police after a boy died because (the protesters believed) his father could not afford the treatment.

政府的担忧并非杞人忧天。即便在涨价之前……（后面这些事就不翻了，大家自己看 -,-）

Even members of Beijing’s middle class complain. Although the consumer-price index has long been growing in low single digits, many say that it does not accurately reflect the increasing burden. Yi Xianrong of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says housing costs, which have been rising fast in many cities in recent years, are not given due weight in the index (food accounts for a third of the index and housing less than 14%). He says local governments, which benefit hugely from rising property prices, have been far more reluctant to investigate price-fixing allegations in that sector than they have in the case of food.

就连北京的中产阶级都在抱怨物价上涨。尽管CPI增长长期保持在一位数，但许多人认为这并不能准确的反映人民生活越来越沉重的负担。社科院某研究员认为，目前中国CPI的算法中，房价的权重太小（食品的权重达到1/3，房价却只有14%）。他认为地方政府从房地产市场中得到了太多油水，因此不愿意拿出打击操纵猪肉价格者的劲头，去调查操纵房价的商人。

If there is one source of relief for the party it is that China’s consumers have not been swept up by a recent surge of discontent abroad over safety standards of Chinese products. Consumers in China, where the market is subject to far less rigorous quality controls, should have more reason to complain than those overseas. They have to contend with pork that is sometimes injected with water to make it heavier or, worse still, with poisonous chemicals to make the meat less fatty. Hundreds of people in Shanghai fell ill last year from such meat.

但是有一件事，政府会略感欣慰。前段时间，中国商品因安全标准问题，在海外市场受到大规模的质疑和冲击。中国国内市场的产品质量控制标准，远没有在其他一些国家那样严格。中国国内的消费者有更多理由抱怨产品质量。猪肉经常注水，有时还会添加化学品……去年上海有几百人吃了添加化学品的猪肉而罹患疾病……

A muzzled press and a lack of independent consumer-rights organisations help suppress this sort of bad news. Zhou Qing, who wrote a book published this year on the dangers of food sold in China, says officials have tried to curb its circulation (his dissident past may not have endeared him to them either). Mr Zhou suspects that the high price of pork will encourage more doctoring of meat.

（这段不翻了……大家自己看……）

Officials predict that the consumer-price index will rise by around 4% this year as a whole. This is still tame compared with the double-digit peaks of previous inflationary periods in the past two decades. Neither is it far off the target of less than 3% set at the beginning of the year. Officials say subsidies aimed at encouraging pig-rearing should cause the pork shortage to ease by the middle of next year. But some still fear more general inflation. Efforts this year to curb liquidity and a surging economy—including four interest-rate rises and seven increases in the amount of money commercial banks must deposit at the central bank—have shown few results. As he prepares for his big moment at the party congress, Mr Hu will not be at ease.

为了控制经济的流动性，年内央行已经四次升息，七次提高存款准备金。但这一切似乎收效甚微。

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9804424

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